Which Lottery Pays Back the Most?
Every lottery keeps part of what it sells, to pay for running costs, good causes and, in some countries, the government's share. The rest goes back to players as prizes. But how much goes back, and does it change from one lottery to the next?
We ranked 8 of the world's best known lotteries, from Saturday Lotto to the US Powerball, using a year of real prizes. Let's find out which one gives you the most for your money!
How we measured it
For every lottery, we worked out what a ticket was worth on average in each draw of the last year: every prize divided by its odds. That's called the expected value.
- The smaller prizes are the ones actually paid. In most lotteries they're a share of a prize pool, so they change from draw to draw.
- The Jackpot is each draw's actual Jackpot. The bigger it gets, the more tickets are sold, and the more likely you'd have to share it, so we allowed for that too.
- US Jackpots count at their cash value, about half the advertised amount, since the other lotteries pay their Jackpots in one go.
To compare lotteries priced in different currencies, everything is per dollar, or euro, spent.
The ranking
| Lottery | Price | Odds of the Jackpot | Odds of any prize | Paid back per $1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weekday Windfall | A$0.68 | 1 in 8,145,060 | 1 in 85.4 | 53c |
| 2 | Australia Saturday Lotto | A$0.95 | 1 in 8,145,060 | 1 in 41.7 | 53c |
| 3 | US Powerball | $2 | 1 in 292,201,338 | 1 in 24.7 | 44c |
| 4 | Australia Powerball | A$1.58 | 1 in 134,490,400 | 1 in 44.0 | 43c |
| 5 | Euro Jackpot | €2 | 1 in 139,838,160 | 1 in 31.7 | 43c |
| 6 | Oz Lotto | A$1.50 | 1 in 62,891,499 | 1 in 50.4 | 42c |
| 7 | Euro Millions | €2.50 | 1 in 139,838,160 | 1 in 13.1 | 37c |
| 8 | US Mega Millions | $5 | 1 in 290,472,336 | 1 in 23.0 | 33c |
Weekday Windfall comes out on top, paying back 53c for every dollar spent, while US Mega Millions pays back the least, at 33c. Either way, you get back around half of what you spend, at best!
Where the money comes back from is just as interesting. Weekday Windfall has the most generous smaller prizes, worth 35c per dollar, while US Powerball puts the most into its top prize, worth 28c per dollar.
Weekday Windfall stands out: its top prize is a fixed $1 million for every winner, so it's never shared. Smaller, but all yours!
If you just like winning something, EuroMillions is hard to beat, with a prize on 1 in 13.1 tickets, thanks to a small prize for matching just 2 numbers.
What about tax?
Our ranking is before tax, and that makes a big difference. Lottery prizes are tax free in Australia, and in many of the European countries playing EuroMillions and Eurojackpot. In the US, a Jackpot winner pays up to 37% federal tax, plus their state's tax: check our Powerball payout calculator to see how much. After tax, the US lotteries drop down the ranking.
So, which lottery should you play?
The one you enjoy! The differences between lotteries are real, but every one of them pays back less than you spend, by a long way. And for most of us, the choice is made by where we live anyway.
If you'd like to compare a few lotteries more closely, we looked at which Australian lottery has the best odds, Powerball vs Mega Millions and EuroMillions vs Eurojackpot. Or try them all for free with virtual money in our lottery simulators!
Our figures are estimates, from the draws of the last 12 months. They change as Jackpots grow and shrink, and assume numbers are picked at random.